12.03.2009

NOON UPDATE


Equities continue to trade around the flat line with the NAZ and tech leading while metals, energy and financials lag.


NYSE- 270 net green;

NAZ- flat internals;

SPX- 225/265;

NDX- 55 GREEN;


TRIN- 1.31- with up and down volume about even;


VIX- up 1.5% at 21.45 and about 3% under the SMA 10.


Gold is slightly lower for the first time in quite a while,


Equities were higher this morning before the worse than expected ISM services number was printed- A move higher later in the day is probably in the cards as the bears just can't seem to do much to get this market lower.


RSI 2 levels are overbought as most major indexes trade at levels over 70-

12.02.2009

THE SWOON


Equities are generally lower half way through the trading day - but lots of cross currents- kind of surprising that we are lower as the internals are green on the NYSE/NAZ/SPX - problem - the dollar which is up .35% -


Strongest sectors- small caps, airlines, metals, reits, internets and semis while energy, gaming, brokers and large caps lag.


NYSE- 600 net winners;

NAZ- 400 net winners;

SPX- 270 green;

NDX- 53 green;

DJIA 10 green;


TRIN- 1.41 with up volume slightly better than down.


VIX- down 1% at 21.7 and about 2% below the SMA 10.


WINNERS- AA MET AMZN WY MON AEP STX LRCX WCRX STLD FAST GRMN;


LOSERS- JOYG PCAR ATVI SPLS RYAAY WAG MS WFC BAC DVN UNH BHI;


RSI 2 levels as follows:


SPX 64

DJIA 78

NAZ 82

NDX 78

RUT 84


Market internals not giving much indication today as they have been dead wrong about direction- and the false break out above 1115 on the SPX also provided a good short/sell area for many traders.


The dollar is probably still key and 75 still seems like big resistance for now.







12.01.2009

THE FINS


Equity markets are higher but well off their best levels as the financials lag.


SPX +8, NAZ +20 and the DJIA +75.


Strongest sectors- metals, gaming, emerging markets, semis, homies and trannies while nat gas, junk, banks, internets and brokers lag.


NYSE -1700 net winners;

NAZ- 1100 net winners;

SPX - 430/65

NDX 90 GREEN;


TRIN- .72 - up volume about 6x the down;


VIX- down about 7% at 22.9 and still above the SMA 10.


The dollar is down about .6% and not sure where support is - it was 75 which is now resistance/


GOLD up at $1195 and just fed some DGP ducks - and will hopefully buy back lower.


Financials are definitely lagging and that could be signalling a sell off later today- in the mean time I am sticking with EWA EEM EWZ and TECH- I suspect buyers will come in later and the fins will join the party as beginning of December is probably a good time for equities.


Gartman with some under the radar issues.


Equity appetite waning?




11.30.2009

MORNING MUSH


Markets are lower this morning and the snap back rally anticipated by most traders is taking a bit longer to develop.


SPX -3.5, NAZ -14 and the DJIA -30.


Strongest sectors- Australia, banks, airlines, brokers and reits while nat gas, Latin America, retail, gaming and small caps lag.


NYSE- 800 net losers;

NAZ- 1100 net losers;

SPX - 139/360;

NDX- 12 GREEN;


TRIN- .89 with down volume about 1.5 the up- seems a bit skewed by BAC C FRE and FNM.


VIX- +3% at 25.45 and about 14% above the SMA 10.


The dollar is moving on up again but may run into some nice resistance at the 75 level.


RSI 2 levels as follows:


SPX 13

NAZ 9

NDX 11

RUT 4

DJIA 12


So definitely some buy signals in the short term from the VIX and the RSI 2 levels - problem is probably not a lot of folks expecting a big selloff and that is what we may get- I added to GDX DGP EWA on Friday and if we continue to go lower I will buy more for TT

11.24.2009

FLIP FLOPS


Equity indexes are flip flopping around this morning as the dollar moves up and down - and is up about .2% as I type at 75.3 while the SPX is down 4.75, NAZ -14 and the DJIA -53.


Strongest sectors- semis, biotech, junk, drugs and retail while gaming, reits, metals, homies and brokers lag.


NYSE-1120 net losers;

NAZ- 1150 net losers;

SPX- 125 GREEN;

NDX- 20 GREEN;


TRIN- 1.19 with down volume 2.5 x the up;


VIX- down a hair at 21 and trading at 7.5% under the SMA 10;


RSI 2 levels on most major indexes near 50.


The photo above- the SPX v the EWA or the Aussie stock market- and it looks like the SPX is catching up - so maybe time to add more EWA v SPX - we will see.


It actually look like its time to take some time away from the machines as the markets probably do very little between now and the weekend - and that sounds pretty pretty good- so probably little posting between now and next week.


11.23.2009

MORNING RIP


Equities open strong on the heels of higher prices across the pond and a dropping dollar.


SPX + 18- NAZ +37 and the DJIA +153;


Strongest sectors include metals, energy, emerging markets, small caps and airlines while junk, gaming, brokers and biotech lag.


NYSE- 2150 net winners;

NAZ- 1500 net winners;

NDX- 95 GREEN;

SPX- 477 GREEN;


VIX- lower by 3.4% at 21.45 and about 5% under the SMA 10;


TRIN- .53 with up volume about 12x the down;


Gold up about $20 at $1171;


The dollar is clearly the driver of equities and it is again bouncing off the 75 level which has been recent support- so watch that line as any dip below may prove to be a real problem for the dollar - as again old support becomes resistance.


RSI 2 levels on major indexes as follows:


SPX 77;

NDX 71

DJIA 83

RUT 76

XLE 68

XLF 71


11.22.2009

FUN READS


Got my hands on the Wellington Letter which is written by Bert Dohmen- and it was a pretty good read- here is one of his bullish points on gold:


"With the huge 200 ton purchase of gold by the Bank of India, it is clear that the central banks will not sell their gold but accumulate more, quietly. Large investment pools and the wealthy around the world will also accelerate diversification into the yellow metal as a flight to safety from the disastrous policies coming out of Washington. Gold is better than paper. It is a scarce commodity. All the gold ever mined in the world in history will fit in two Olympic swimming pools. The quantity of paper is only limited by the number of trees."


Barrons with some decent stuff this weekend including an article on cheap dividend paying stocks - such as:


STD PE of 10.6 and 4.2% yield;


CVX PE of 10.1 and 3.5% yield;


INTC PE of 13.2 and 3.3% yield;


JNJ PE of 12.7 and 3.14% yield;


MRK PE of 10.2 and 4.3% yield;


WMT PE of 13.8 and 3.2% yield;


And BESPOKE with their look at yields on the SP 500;


An interesting look at TV;


Finally, I bet she didn't write it and he didn't read it - but good amusement anyway;




11.20.2009

MIDDAY SIGNALS


Equity markets are trading lower but hitting buy signals if you follow the RSI 2 trading strategy - basically says buy when RSI 2 is at/under 10 when the underlying is in an uptrend - above the SMA 200- that is what we have on most major market indexes today.


Another signal generally worth following is buy the SPX when the VIX is more than 10% above its SMA 10- well that one is no where near hitting as the VIX is at the SMA 10.


So I will probably be buying some EWA SSO DIG - as we get a nice rally next week as the holiday kicks in.


EARLY CHECK


Equity futures getting hammered again this morning after the SPX lost 15 points yesterday to close at 1095 with an RSI 2 reading of 15.


One of the reasons equities are down is the rip in the dollar which is up about .7% almost hitting the 76 level.


Gold is down about $7 at $1138 while silver is down about 2% at $18.2.


The VIX not giving much of a buy signal as it is still trading under the SMA 10 at 22.63.


BESPOKE with some GOLD observations;


And another business news choice for those in the NY metro area- suburbs not NYC;


Andrew Sullivan on the Palin book;








11.17.2009

MORNING FACTS


Markets are lower this morning but not so bad in light of the big run yesterday - and everyoneknew today was Turnaround Tuesday- SPX -5, NAZ -9 and the DJIA -21.


The dollar is ripping higher this morning as it is up close to 1% at 75.6 after falling nicely yesterday.


Strongest sectors- junk, banks and real estate while retail, metals, oil service, internets and biotech lag.


NYSE- 1060 net losers;

NAZ- 1000 net losers;

SPX- 120 green;

NDX- 22 green;


VIX- 23.06 and about 4% below the SMA 10.


TRIN- 1.13 with down volume about 2x the up.


Market internals are far worse than the indexes indicate so a bigger dip is probably in store later in the day- 3/4 of the key stocks I follow are red - so my guess is lower later- RSI 2 readings near 60 on the SPX so no short term buy or sell signals - that was yesterday- with a sell.


11.13.2009

GONE SHOOTING (DIGITAL)


11.12.2009

MORE DIPPING


Equities are trading lower on the heels of an upward move in the dollar and a bearish report on crude. SPX +5, NAZ -5 and DJIA -40.


Strongest sectors- internets, drugs, ags, semis and defense while metals, energy, homies, gaming and brokers lag.


NYSE- 1400 net losers;

NAZ- 900 net losers;

SPX- 120 GREEN;

NDX- 35 GREEN;


VIX- up 5% at 24.15 and about 7% under the SMA 10;


TRIN- 1.00 - with down volume about 3x the up-


RSI 2 levels as follows:


SPX -52

DJIA -56

NAZ- 67

NDX- 84

RUT -41

XLE 14

XLF 54

XLK 70

EWA 47

EWC 39

EEM 39

EWZ 20


As usual I suspect the market gets bought later in the day as that has been the usual pattern- doubtful we get back to the flat line but close before the close will probably be my bet.